ESOMAR, the world organization for opinion and market research, held a seminar “The Role of Opinion Polling in the Election Process” in Phoenicia Intercontinental Hotel on Tuesday 6th December 2011.

The seminar was under the patronage of former Interior Minister Ziad Baroud and with the participation of ESOMAR Secretary General Venn Roney, former Director of Surveys at CBS News Kathleen Frankovic, Founder and Director of Strategic Communication Consultancy (S2C) Mr. Ramsay Najjar and Founder and Managing Partner of Information International SAL Mr. Jawad Adra. The representative of ESOMAR in Lebanon Dr. Tarek Ammar introduced the participants to an audience of roughly 70 people including researchers, scholars and representatives of research and statistical analysis firms.

Mr. Adra’s speech included the following:

“The error may occur in any measurement process. Is the measurement tool precise? Are we measuring what should be measured? Were the results reached in alignment with our expectations? How should we react if the findings came contrary to what we expected? ”

“There are several reasons that leave us lacking real opinion polling in Lebanon, for neither the public opinion is public nor the survey is a survey. The public opinion is maneuvered by tribal and religious divides and displayed in a bazaar of political and financial allegiances, and the operating companies are, willingly or unwillingly, promoting for political leaders and parties.”

“The interest in opinion polling in Lebanon started 20 years back. Information International was among the leading companies who explored the research realm and was able throughout the years to finally form what we call “the opinion poll culture”. We do not pretend that we reached, or will reach and raise awareness of this new culture because the matter entails a unity of effort among multiple people starting from politicians, officials, associations, syndicates, schools and universities and ending with the common people.”

“The stances of the Lebanese differ depending on the nature and the topic of the study. Opinion polls tackling the public status are often greeted by the majority with indifference since people deem themselves incapable of making a difference. On the other hand, citizens show greater interest in electoral opinion polls, in case of fierce competition particularly, because they believe that their voice will be heard and their opinion considered.”

Mr. Adra raised many questions: “Is the public opinion a real opinion? Are people real people and elections real elections? Who influences whom? Are we more influential than over a billion dollars spent on 2009 elections? Are we more influential than the Patriarch Sfeir’s statement, which expressed concerns over Lebanon’s Arabism and identity only two days prior to elections, noting that the word “Arabism” was never uttered by any other Patriarch with such sorrow and fear? Are we more influential than the blood of the late Premier Rafik Hariri and the speeches of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah? Are we more influential than the US threats of woes and blows should we not finance the tribunal?”

Mr. Adra concluded by saying: “If we, polling companies, have any role to play, then it certainly is not the job we are practicing today but rather the duty awaiting us tomorrow through a real contribution to the process of knowledge.”